Forex Blog | Online Forex Trading | Forex News & Analysis

The USD continued to trade near the lower parts of its range versus the major currencies on Friday and this took place on the heels of a poor Non Farm Employment Change number. The U.S. is on holiday today for the Independence Day holiday. Thus, the global marketplace may be relatively quiet with sudden bursts of volatility because of lower volume. The result of the jobless report from the United States highlights that a recovery remains difficult to grasp and that job creation has not been solved. While the Unemployment Rate fell, what concerns investors (and likely the American public) are the statistics which shows that private sector employment is simply not improving and that companies are reducing the amount of pay employees are earning. Europe will release Retail Sales figures today, along with Final Services PMI and the Sentix Investor Confidence reading. None of these numbers are expected to show significant gains. The U.K. is scheduled to publish is Services PMI outcome and this report is also expected to show a flat outcome.

Tomorrow the U.S. will release the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI data and it too is forecasted to show that the economy is still struggling. Wall Street and other global equities have taken the recent flurry of poor economic data badly and have shown little faith in long term prospects. The EUR finds itself around a six week high against the USD, and the JPY also continues to perform strongly. However, the reasons for these two results are significantly different. The EUR still has many questions regarding some of the E.U. nations and their ability to meet their debt obligations. There are also concerns regarding liquidity issues. While the ECB continues to make optimistic pronouncements, investors fear has not gone too far away. The EUR’s recent move may be a short term bounce based on beliefs the Single Currency has been oversold. The JPY continues to behave as a magnate for safe haven trading as obvious questions about long term prospects hit Asia and their counterparts. The GBP has done well the past couple of weeks and this has developed as the U.K. government has taken a stance with tough austerity measures. Today’s trading may test ranges, but the results will have to be looked upon with suspicion in lighter than normal markets due to the American holiday.

The consolidated range that the JPY and USD has been undertaking for months continues. Asian bourses found themselves in weaker territory on the heels of less than promising data from the U.S. yesterday. With important data ready to come from the States today and Wall Street showing signs of nervousness it would not be surprising to see risk adverse trading increase these next two days of trading.

The JPY gained against the USD on Wednesday under another wave of risk adverse trading leading up to today’s risk events from Europe and the United States. Asian bourses have found themselves under pressure this week with most gains only coming after poor performances. Gold is trading around 1224.00 USD an ounce and it may prove a very good barometer today and tomorrow.

The JPY and USD pair proved that in times of crisis that they can turn in a song and dance routine that becomes rather well practiced. The currency pair moved in a consolidated manner as Asian bourses reflected their international counterparts and proved almost mute. Investors globally have shown that they are waiting for impetus to make their next push. With the Central Bank meetings coming from the ECB and BoE tomorrow and Retail Sales data from the States on Friday, traders may see a push from these events. Until then the JPY will find itself under the spell of risk sentiment.

The JPY and USD traded in a consolidated motion as some of the risk adverse fervor lessened and the Asian bourses actually turned in slight gains on their own going into the European trading session on Tuesday. Gold climbed and now finds itself above 1240.00 USD, perhaps signaling that a flight to quality remains a priority in these nervous markets.

The JPY got stronger against the USD as risk adverse trading took hold of investors. Asian bourses traded significantly lower reflecting the declines of other international equity markets. The JPY and USD are clearly favorites among safe haven investors and the pair continues to move based on the gyrations of risk appetite. Gold finds itself around 1214.00 USD per ounce and it too will be an important barometer in what could be a nervous market today.

The USD powered higher against the EUR and GBP on Thursday.  Continuing its strong trend, the USD moved to four year high water marks against the EUR. Even as data from the U.S. yesterday proved rather lackluster, the markets appeared to have been positioning themselves for today. Weekly Unemployment Claims were slightly worse than anticipated and the ADP Non Farm numbers also proved disappointing. Also producing a negative outcome were the Factory Orders which turned in a gain of 1.2% compared to the estimate of 1.7%. The government jobless publication today is forecasted to show a significant amount of jobs added with a figure of 529K the forecast. Investors who have been singing the praises of a sustainable recovery will hold their breath as the Non Farm Employment Change results come across the wires and the number will affect trading.

The USD turned in another positive day and its results must be closely examined considering that Wall Street turned in gains too. While the major equity indexes did not climb in a huge amount, it is clear that investors are in essence sitting on the fence and waiting for today’s employment numbers. The stock market has been pummeled for over a month and there are certainly investors who believe that some type of bottom has been reached and that it may be time to fish for bargains. However, there are no doubt legions of investors who also have a less than bright outlook for the U.S. economy and its international counterparts. It will take more than one extraordinary jobs report to really improve the large amount of unemployment that currently exists in the U.S. and is putting a cramp in consumer spending and into the housing sector. The Sovereign Debt issues from Europe remain a large piece of the puzzle as its implications are still being argued. Risk sentiment will be tested for all to see today in the equity markets and the USD will also continue to be traded within a complex web.

The JPY finds itself at the weaker part of its strong range against the USD. The Yen did manage to range trade yesterday after two losing sessions and investors will go into today’s trading session looking at their risk appetite carefully. The JPY and USD remain two safe have currencies and their trading has reflected this for quite a while. Asian bourse traded cautiously as investors proved unwilling to venture forward too much before the critical U.S. Non Farm Employment Change data today.

The JPY traded lower against the USD again on Wednesday and finds itself moving towards the weaker sides of its range against the greenback. This has come on the heels of a political upheaval in Japan in which investors may actually be ‘accepting’ of the ‘prospective’ new Prime Minister who has a financial ministry background. Asian bourses followed the American bourses higher as risk appetite increased. With the Non Farm Employment Change numbers due from the States tomorrow, traders may position themselves with caution leading up to the results.

The Japanese Prime Minister stepped down after only nine months in office last night because of political pressure. The JPY did lose some ground to the USD on the heels of the government shake up, but this is a situation that has occurred in Japan before and one that investors for the most part are accustomed to. Asian bourses did turn in slightly negative performances mirroring their counterparts. Risk sentiment will be the key ingredient for trading today for the JPY and USD pair. The political crisis in Japan while important may prove a mere nuisance for investors within a week.