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The USD continued to trade near the lower parts of its range versus the major currencies on Friday and this took place on the heels of a poor Non Farm Employment Change number. The U.S. is on holiday today for the Independence Day holiday. Thus, the global marketplace may be relatively quiet with sudden bursts of volatility because of lower volume. The result of the jobless report from the United States highlights that a recovery remains difficult to grasp and that job creation has not been solved. While the Unemployment Rate fell, what concerns investors (and likely the American public) are the statistics which shows that private sector employment is simply not improving and that companies are reducing the amount of pay employees are earning. Europe will release Retail Sales figures today, along with Final Services PMI and the Sentix Investor Confidence reading. None of these numbers are expected to show significant gains. The U.K. is scheduled to publish is Services PMI outcome and this report is also expected to show a flat outcome.

Tomorrow the U.S. will release the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI data and it too is forecasted to show that the economy is still struggling. Wall Street and other global equities have taken the recent flurry of poor economic data badly and have shown little faith in long term prospects. The EUR finds itself around a six week high against the USD, and the JPY also continues to perform strongly. However, the reasons for these two results are significantly different. The EUR still has many questions regarding some of the E.U. nations and their ability to meet their debt obligations. There are also concerns regarding liquidity issues. While the ECB continues to make optimistic pronouncements, investors fear has not gone too far away. The EUR’s recent move may be a short term bounce based on beliefs the Single Currency has been oversold. The JPY continues to behave as a magnate for safe haven trading as obvious questions about long term prospects hit Asia and their counterparts. The GBP has done well the past couple of weeks and this has developed as the U.K. government has taken a stance with tough austerity measures. Today’s trading may test ranges, but the results will have to be looked upon with suspicion in lighter than normal markets due to the American holiday.

Caution and tentative trading came back into the broad markets swiftly on Wednesday as economic data from the U.S. managed once again to emphasize that not all is well. The USD gained on the EUR and GBP after the Building Permits and Housing Starts both proved negative. The gains by the Greenback were not accomplished with much volatility, but there is no denying that risk appetite took a hit and investors promptly began to express weary trading on Wall Street too. The Building Permits outcome was .57 million compared to the anticipated figure of .63 million and the Housing Starts numbers were equally disappointing. Crude Oil Inventories also showed an increase, perhaps indicating that even though Americans are driving in their historically high usage months that demand is not significant. Today the States will release weekly Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Although risk appetite did raise its head earlier, it does appear that the bad data yesterday combined with previously discouraging retail and jobless reports put a dent into sentiment. The Fed report from Philadelphia and the Unemployment numbers today could be enough to cause volatility if they do not provide better outlooks – and it should be noted that both publications are anticipated to be rather flat. Meaning that Wall Street could use any additional bad news today to trade lower and the USD may find investors grasping for safe havens. Tomorrow there will be a lack of economic news from the States and this means that today is likely to be heavily influenced by the data on the calendar and the prospects for a robust recovery. Having seen rather lackluster releases come from the U.S. the past two weeks, investors could not be faulted for thinking that negative news may highlight the day.

Economic data from Europe was rather light and the EUR traded under the gyrations of risk sentiment. CPI releases from the E.U. proved lackluster, demonstrating once again that inflation is not a predominant theme in the current environment. Europe continues to demonstrate that its prospects for a strong recovery will remain a difficult task. However, the EUR lost ground to the USD probably due to a decrease in risk appetite coming from dollar centric developments because of poor data across the ocean. The E.U. will be holding another crisis summit in Brussels today to discuss the Sovereign Debt issues and austerity measures that its nations are being asked to consider. While investors have shown a certain degree of comfort in recent days with the EUR and allowed it to find stability there should be little doubt that the wrong turn of a card could cause it to stutter step again. The EUR enjoyed a few steady days of sunshine, but traders will have to watch for risk adverse clouds.

Once again the USD traded within a range bound consistency, but did lose some ground to the EUR and GBP. Wall Street struggled on Wednesday and this occurred with little in the way of economic data. Ben Bernanke spoke at a Federal Reserve conference in Richmond and issued warnings about the lack of private sector growth and its implications. Bernanke also went on to say that the U.S. does face risk from the European debt crisis and that the Federal Reserve is poised to counteract negative impacts. He additionally spoke about the size of budget deficits in America and the potential for this debt to come back and haunt the economic landscape if not acted upon. Thus investors were given another spoonful of less than optimistic rhetoric, and this time it was from someone they have come to rely on to give a more optimistic viewpoint.

Today the U.S. will release weekly Unemployment Claims and the numbers are expected to improve slightly. Trade Balance data will also be published. The jobless situation remains a primary concern among investors as they continue to ask where job creation will come from. Tomorrow Retail Sales figures and the Prelim Consumer Sentiment reading are on the calendar. Wall Street has for the most part traded in negative territory all week, and going into these last two days of the week will somehow look for an opportunity to bounce upwards. However, with a slew of negative sentiment abounding, an equity rally may prove difficult without a good surprise from economic data and where that will come from is hard to guess. The USD has traded in a cautious manner this week and has actually lost some ground to the EUR, but the fact remains that the Greenback is within the stronger parts of its range versus the Single Currency. Thus traders going into these last two trading days will have to be prepared for additional short term movements, which could reverse on a dime if risk adverse sentiment suddenly increases.

The Sterling managed to pick up some ground against the USD on Wednesday before going into today’s Bank of England policy meeting. There will be absolutely no interest rate change from the U.K. today, but investors will stay attentive for any signs of change to quantitative easing policies. The new U.K. government has been adamant the past few days that they are going to undertake austerity measures in order to tackle the large deficits that exist. However, many tests remain for the real economy and politicians and central bankers may have a tough task when it comes to facing the reality of the market place. Economic data from the U.K. remains a mixed bag and investors have legitimate concerns about its capability to achieve growth. The GBP has found itself under pressure for a considerable amount of time and yesterday’s short term gains do not change these facts.

The currency and equity markets traded in rather consolidated fashion on Tuesday. Market participants continue to exhibit nervousness and there has been little in the way of economic data so far this week in order to push them off of the fence. The USD traded in range against the EUR and GBP as traders displayed little conviction. Wednesday’s calendar will be rather light for data as Crude Oil Inventories and Wholesale Inventories numbers come forth, along with Beige Book figures. Ben Bernanke may find himself the focus for many in what may prove to be an otherwise quiet day of news. Tomorrow Trade Balance, weekly Unemployment Claims, and the Federal Budget Balance will all be reported and if today proves to be another tentative session, it could be Thursday that sees data cause an impact. Wrapping up the week on Friday will be Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment statistics.

Thus, investors who last week reacted badly to a poor Non Farm Employment Change number may be holding their breath as they wait to see where American consumers are lining up (or not lining up as may be the case). The GDP from the States relies heavily upon the American pocketbook – as do many export nations – and unless people begin to spend more there stands the chance that stagnation will become the byword instead of recovery. Until powerhouse economic data is produced from the jobless front it remains doubtful that the Retail or Consumer numbers will astonish anybody. The additional problem now exist – which is still being played down by American officials – that if the European financial crisis truly ruptures and causes contagion, that international economies including the States are likely going to find themselves effected by the spillover and it will not be in a positive manner. The USD finds itself holding serve and traders in the meantime may find some opportunistic ranges.

The EUR managed to trade in range on Tuesday as investors cautiously moved in what are still nervous circumstances. German Industrial Production data was released and turned in a slightly positive outcome, but as mentioned yesterday the numbers were not exactly the talking point of the day. Instead what remains in focus are stories about Spanish banks and their liquidity and what are the real possibilities of a restructuring of Sovereign Debt unfolding among troubled E.U. nations. Tomorrow the ECB will hold their monetary policy meeting and press conference. And going into the event, investors will be well aware that the previous press conference did not go too well for ECB President Trichet who fumbled for answers and promptly sent the EUR into a spiral. The EUR finds itself at a critical juncture in terms of value and there can be no doubt that traders are viewing its current levels carefully. Europe will be quiet regarding data today and risk sentiment is sure to be determined largely by news and rumors that are circulating among market participants.

The USD made a strong start on Monday and then allowed the EUR and GBP to bounce back from their lows. Powering to new highs the USD started to find some resistance as the day developed and began to range trade. Wall Street began the day on a slightly positive note, but was not able to sustain its gains and market uncertainty took its toll by the end of the trading session as the major indexes suffered. There was no economic data from the U.S. yesterday, but Ben Bernanke did make an appearance in the evening and said he believes the American economy remains on the path of recovery, but he cautioned that it would not feel strong until the unemployment numbers improve. Bernanke went onto say that the U.S. has the capability of avoiding a double dip recession. Today will remain quiet for government data and it will only be on Thursday with the weekly Unemployment Claims and on Friday with the Retail statistics, that investors will have numbers to really bite into.

Until the U.S. releases formidable data, investors will be left to work off of existing sentiment and news which is being generated from the corporate front and the European Sovereign Debt saga. A bad start on Monday for Wall Street usually does not bode well for equities and certainly will not provide any level of comfort for investors going into today’s trading. The USD continues to find itself well within the strongest parts of its range against the EUR and GBP. The Greenback has also made a potent move against the AUD as of late. Commodity prices – excluding Gold – continue to show that they are under pressure and this highlights that demand for resources remains lackluster. In essence the broad market place continues to be a chess board that matches long term thinking versus short term strategic safe haven moves. Investors have serious questions about structural fiscal policy and how this will affect the prospects for a recovery. The USD is likely to find itself within a range trading mode today.

The EUR traded to new lows early on Monday but was able to bounce back and push itself at least into stronger parts of its intraday ranges. The EUR found some stability as Hungarian officials stepped forward and said that they had essentially been ‘misunderstood’ regarding the depths of its financial concerns. The Hungarian financial minister pointed out the country believes they can manage their fiscal environment without further need of assistance and maintain its stated budget. The E.U. is also holding talks in order to formulate its debt rescue plan with a ‘super fund’ that would back nations who face a monetary crisis. The question that investors are asking more than anything is if the EUR has found its fair value and if enough of its ‘premium’ has now been priced out of the Single Currency due to the Sovereign Debt issues. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the EUR his own backing last night, and said he believes the E.U. will act in a coordinated fashion and the EUR will remain a viable currency. German Industrial Production figures will be brought today, but investors may pay as much attention to strikes going on in Spain as these economic numbers. The EUR remains a currency with plenty of questions and risk sentiment will hold sway again today.

A new act in the theater of the absurd for the EUR erupted on Friday when Hungarian officials publically said that they might have a difficult task meeting debt obligations. Hungary does not use the EUR but it has had its government spending backed by the E.U. in a massive undertaking and the reports of impending doom shook the marketplace. The EUR moved lower as the news made its way through the news services and the Single Currency promptly sank to new four year lows. Over the weekend Hungarian officials tried to back pedal from their pronouncements and said that the statements were not correct. German Factory Orders data will be released today, but the impetus for EUR traders will remain all about risk sentiment. One of the problems that the EUR is now facing among investors is a question of legitimacy as concerns continue to cascade regarding the lack of transparency and inability to put one coordinated plan of action into place for the European Union. Short term versus long term trading are two completely different birds, but traders looking to take advantage of the volatile range of the EUR will have to be on their toes.